Cards vs. Cubs: New RFs

Both the Cardinals and Cubs have lost their 2005 starting right-fielders (Larry Walker to retirement, Jeromy Burnitz via free agency to the Pirates) and have replaced them with younger, sleeker, and presumably more athletic players in the corner outfield spot. The Cardinals signed Juan Encarnacion to a three-year, 15 million dollar contract, while the Cubs signed Jacque Jones to a three-year, 16 million dollar contract.
Just from what I have heard about the two players through the media it looks like the Cubs have signed the better player. Encarnacion has always been labeled as a malcontent who has never really reached his potential. Jones, however, has helped the Twins win the AL Central a few times earlier in the decade. Jones is a product of the Twins organization (drafted in 1996, breaking in 1999) and has never been traded. Encarnacion, however, has played for Detroit, Cincinnatti, Los Angeles and Florida (twice). As I started looking at the two players more closely, I am starting to think the Cardinals made the better signing.
Offense:
For clarification, Encarnacion will turn 30 in March; bats right and throws right.
Jones will turn 31 in April; bats left and throws left.
Games, AB 2005
Encarnacion played in 141 G and had 506 AB.
Jones played in 142 and had 523 AB.
- since they played in an almost identical amount of games and had similar at-bats last year, comparisons should be fairly easy to make.
AVG./OBP./SLG
Encarnacion: .287/.349/.447
Jones: .249/.319/.438
- First thought on this is that the OBPs of both players don't exactly jump out at you. Both players seem to like to swing the bat. When they do swing the bat, Encarnacion hits for a better average while Jones puts a little more power on the ball when he does make contact (lower AVG, but comparable slugging).
R/HR/RBI
Encarnacion: 59/16/76
Jones: 74/23/73
- Judging from the low AVG and greater HR totals, it seems like Jacque loves to swing for the fences. It would seem that someone who likes to swing for the fences in the Metrodome would have more than 23 HR while batting .249 (more on that later). Just from the lines above, Jones has the power advantage. If I remember correctly, though, Jones was cleanup for the Twins while Encarnacion mostly batted sixth for the Marlins. You would think Jones would have had more RBIs just by batting in the cleanup spot alone. Jones did lead in R, but if you are the cleanup batter you have more batters that are able to hit you in rather than if you batted sixth like Encarnacion.
- FYI: Jones had 13 SB while Encarnacion had 6. I would say that this season they will be about even because LaRussa loves to run and create, while Dusty (unless he changes his mind in the offseason) doesn't (or can't).
Strikeouts:
Encarnacion struck out 104 times last year (25.3%)
Jones struck out 120 times last year (26.4%).
- Not much discipline here by either. Very similar.
Last Year Team:
In terms of runs, both players played in below average offenses last season. Encarnacion played with Florida. Florida ranked 19th in MLB in runs scored (717). Jones played in Minnesota which ranked 25th in runs scored (688).
Encarnacion is moving into the 6th best offense in St. Louis (805). I know the lineup is different now, but I am looking for the core players to be back in 2006 which they are.
Jones is moving into the 20th best offense in Chicago (703).
You can expect Juan Encarnacion to jump in both R and RBIs playing in a much better offense than he did last year. Jones is playing in a better offense also, but not all that much better.
Encarnacion gets the advantage here. He is moving from a below average offense to one of the best while Jones is moving from one of the worst offenses to a below average offense.
Ballpark Effect:
I don't have concrete statistics on this, but Encarnacion is moving from a notorious pitcher's park (Pro Player) to the new Busch. Nobody knows how the new Busch will play out, but the early reports are that it will play neutral.
Jones is moving from one of the best hitter's parks, especially for lefthanders (Metrodome) to another good hitter's park in Wrigley Field. Wrigley tends to play better for right-handed batters than lefties but it is still, overall, a hitters park.
Defense:
In these stats by Baseball Prospectus, Encarnacion doesn't look like all that great of a Right Fielder.
Jones, on the other hand, seems to be a great defensive right fielder.
Based on these stats alone, Jones gets the advantage here.
Overview:
From the information gathered, I think the Cardinals will have better production from their new right fielder than the Cubs will from theirs. Encarnacion had a better average, OBP, and SLG than Jones last year, while Encarnacion played in a pitchers park and Jones in a hitter's park. If Busch Stadium plays neutral or skew a little towards hitters, Encarnacion should have better individual stats. Jones, on the other hand, is leaving one of the best hitter's parks for lefties. Although he is still moving to a good hitter's park, the Metrodome should have been his personal haven. His numbers should have been better than he posted last year.
Encarnacion is jumping into the sixth best lineup in run production while Jones is jumping into the twentieth. I think Encarnacion's move to St. Louis will benefit him more than Jones's move to Chicago.
Also, Jones is going to be seeing NL pitching for the first time. I am always very cautious of a batter switching leagues. He has to get used to new pitchers, ballparks, etc. Encarnacion has served for a while in the NL. He is familiar with the pitchers, ballparks, etc. I always give a slight advantage to a player staying in the league he has played in for a few years rather than a player who will be seeing a league for the first time.
Look for Juan Encarnacion to have a better year offensively than Jacque Jones in 2006. If this happens, there is no doubt the Cardinals as a team will have a more successful year than the Cubs.